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The storm to watch now appears to be a
Tuesday into Wednesday system but the models are having a very hard time getting a handle on this one.
I'm going to go ahead and post some of BRTN's thoughts since I'm not sure how much longer they'll be available (BRTN, if there are copyright issues, remember that I might a lawyer, so don't try to sue me):
The JMA has a reasonable look to it, with a decent snowstorm Tuesday into Wednesday. It doesn't cut off the energy out West like the GFS is showing, rather it digs it into the Southern Rockies and ejects it. It looks very cold as well, temperatures never warm above -5* @ 850mb after Friday. That's what I'm seeing, with the cold high pressure to our N/NE, it will be tough for a storm to warm the column substantially and the track shouldn't come too far N/NW which the EURO is showing. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on any particular run or model at this point, they are very confused as to how this comes together. Today's HPC discussion might as well be a big question mark, there's just no continuity or solid trend right now to go on. If you just consider the GFS, the 12z run has trended more towards the GEFS/EURO/JMA solutions of a more progressive trof/upper low as opposed to the 00z GFS depiction of a CA cut-off. Like I said before, the pattern in the E PAC is more supportive of this solution. I think we can all agree on one thing, there's at least one significant winter storm on the table for the Midwest next week.
First!!!!!!
ReplyDeletethis could work
ReplyDeleteWe'll see
just a test to make sure I did this right lol
ReplyDeleteyay
ReplyDeletedid it work?
ReplyDeleteHmm...posting "first" is a bannable offense. :)
ReplyDeleteWell, Tuesday and Wed look like hardly anything now, at least according to the GFS. Then Next Friday is rain. Maybe SOME snow at the end. Whatever, I'm done, lol.
ReplyDeletejust making sure this works
ReplyDeleteScott = scmhack btw
ReplyDeleteHmmm, I could lose some of my slight veil of anonymity here.
ReplyDeleteONSL exposed...
ReplyDeleteFernandez... Are you related to a Mary Beth Fernandez? She lives in south city too.
Could someone post a link to bellevillewxguy's forum? My computer is in the shop and I need the addresses so I can keep up with the events of next week with my PS3. I would really appreciate it.
ReplyDeletehttp://stlouisstormwatchforums.ipbfree.com
ReplyDelete12z runs are flopping a bit. Storm looks more supressed to the south (which seems reasonble with placement of the HP just to our north) so it's good for us southerners but after Tues/Wed GFS wants to go warm and bring us several chances of rain after that. ECMWF wants to bring us snow also but then a brief warmup on Thurs and then cools us back below freezing on Friday. JMA shows similar solution though it would bring a "bomb" to our east by Wed. with heavy winds and snow. It's similar to what the GFS was showing a few days ago only more progressive. GFS no longer shows a bomb storm, that completely disappeared. It appears models are trending towards cutting the low off in the SW CONUS and spitting out pieces of energy with the JMA and GEM arguing against that. GEM would be our biggest winner as it brings sleet/snow in here Wed. with up to .25 of qpf. GFS has been horrible this winter so I have low confidence in it's solution.
ReplyDeleteI think chances for wx precip of some type for the Tues/Wed. time frame looks good but after that I have low confidence. I think the main upper low will kick out and could bomb out to our east ala the JMA though probably later in the week rather than midweek. I'm not ready to buy into the warmer temp profile suggested by the GFS but I do think a brief warmup after the initial wx precip is likely. Next week is a watcher for sure but what we will exactly get in terms of wx weather is very much up in the air. Models are only in agreement up until Tues then after that they look very confused which makes sense given the complex setup.
Agree with BRTN that JMA solution looks more reaonable with the GEM close by.
ReplyDeleteStill nothing going well with the new model runs
ReplyDelete