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The storm to watch now appears to be a
Tuesday into Wednesday system but the models are having a very hard time getting a handle on this one.
I'm going to go ahead and post some of BRTN's thoughts since I'm not sure how much longer they'll be available (BRTN, if there are copyright issues, remember that I might a lawyer, so don't try to sue me):
The JMA has a reasonable look to it, with a decent snowstorm Tuesday into Wednesday. It doesn't cut off the energy out West like the GFS is showing, rather it digs it into the Southern Rockies and ejects it. It looks very cold as well, temperatures never warm above -5* @ 850mb after Friday. That's what I'm seeing, with the cold high pressure to our N/NE, it will be tough for a storm to warm the column substantially and the track shouldn't come too far N/NW which the EURO is showing. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on any particular run or model at this point, they are very confused as to how this comes together. Today's HPC discussion might as well be a big question mark, there's just no continuity or solid trend right now to go on. If you just consider the GFS, the 12z run has trended more towards the GEFS/EURO/JMA solutions of a more progressive trof/upper low as opposed to the 00z GFS depiction of a CA cut-off. Like I said before, the pattern in the E PAC is more supportive of this solution. I think we can all agree on one thing, there's at least one significant winter storm on the table for the Midwest next week.
